Global artificial intelligence (AI) spending is expected to surge to $360 billion in 2025 and further to $480 billion in 2026, according to a new UBS report. The forecast highlights a 60% year-on-year growth in 2025, followed by 33% growth in 2026, driven by increasing enterprise adoption and the expansion of AI use cases across industries.
However, while Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta—the traditional Big 4 in AI—will continue to account for a significant share of investments, their dominance is projected to diminish. UBS estimates that the Big 4’s share of total AI spending will drop from 58% in 2025 to 52% in 2026, reflecting a broader distribution of investments across emerging players.
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Diversification Signals a Healthy Shift in the AI Ecosystem
The UBS report indicates that AI investment is becoming less concentrated among a few large tech firms. In 2025 alone, spending outside the Big 4 is expected to reach $150 billion. This trend is seen as a positive development, suggesting greater market resilience and reduced volatility as a more diverse range of players contribute to AI innovation and adoption.
A major driver behind this shift is the rise of Chinese AI investments. China is projected to account for 35% of the AI spend outside of the Big 4, fueled by government support, the growing popularity of low-cost AI models such as DeepSeek, and expanding applications across sectors like e-commerce, advertising, and social media.
Neocloud and Enterprise Players Gaining Momentum
Beyond traditional hyperscalers, the report highlights the emergence of “neocloud” providers—companies offering specialized, AI-integrated cloud services. These firms are expected to capture about 25% of the non-Big 4 AI spending in 2025.
Other hyperscalers and sovereign cloud providers, including Oracle and Softbank, are also poised to gain a larger share of the AI investment landscape as businesses diversify their technology partnerships.
UBS advises investors to continue tracking developments among the Big 4 but stresses that the future of AI will increasingly be shaped by a broader set of companies. As global demand for AI solutions intensifies, investments are expanding b
